The Arab world will not settle into the old habits of repression.

Arriving at a template that effectively integrates Islam, democracy and vibrant economics has been a near-impossible dream for Middle East reformers stretching back decades. To a large extent, Egypt’s inability to accommodate these themes lies at the root of its current plight. But no country in the region has come closer to accomplishing this trick than Turkey. As a result, diplomats and analysts have begun to present the still-incomplete Turkish experiment as a possible road map for Egypt.

“Turkey is the envy of the Arab world,” said Hugh Pope, project director for the Turkish office of the International Crisis Group. “It has moved to a robust democracy, has a genuinely elected leader who seems to speak for the popular mood, has products that are popular from Afghanistan to Morocco - including dozens of sitcoms dubbed into Arabic that are on TV sets everywhere - and an economy that is worth about half of the whole Arab world put together.”

Turkey’s mildly Islamist prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seems on a path to win his third election , having neutered a powerful military apparatus long seen as the guardian of secularism in the country. (Elections must be held by June.)

It has not always been this way.

Indeed, when Hosni Mubarak came to power in Egypt in October 1981, after the assassination of President Anwar el-Sadat, Turkey was still being governed by its army, which one year earlier intervened to impose a sense of order on the country’s fractious political scene.

But while Mr. Mubarak, a military man himself, banked on authoritarian rule, the general behind the Turkish coup, Kenan Evren, moved to withdraw from politics. The constitution he imposed left the military considerable scope to meddle in political affairs, but it allowed civilian institutions to bloom. On the economic front Egypt maintained state control, with many restrictions on trade and domestic competition. By contrast, Turkey, which hopes to join the European Union, has opened up its economy and unleashed a dynamic private sector.

Today, with similarly sized populations of about 80 million, Turkey has an economy that is nearly four times the size of Egypt’s.

Its recent growth spurt has been driven by Mr. Erdogan, who came to power in 2003 and focused first on reducing deficits and bringing down inflation. Only after he demonstrated success in raising living standards did he feel confident enough to overcome opposition from the determinedly secular army and the cosmopolitan elite in Istanbul by introducing elements of Islam into Turkish public life.

He has been rewarded with broad popular support at home - demonstrated in September when Mr. Erdogan easily won a referendum that further diluted the military’s powers - and growing influence abroad. In responding to the Egypt crisis, President Obama telephoned Prime Minister Erdogan twice in six days .

“There’s no question that Turkey can play a role,” one administration official said. The official, speaking anonymously, noted that Mr. Erdogan and Turkish leaders had publicly called for Mr. Mubarak to listen to what the protesters on the streets of Cairo had been saying .

Turkey’s ability to thrive as a predominantly Muslim country that maintains diplomatic relations - though chilly - with Israel is one that American officials would like to see other Muslim nations develop.

But it is also true that actions taken by the Erdogan government against the Turkish news media have been a cause for some concern .

With the Egyptian military likely to play political guarantor in any transition from Mr. Mubarak’s rule, analysts suggest that Turkey might serve as a model for introducing new political parties, writing a constitution and ultimately stepping aside and letting the democratic process play out - all of which the Turkish military has done since the 1980 coup.

“The military did not overplay its hand in Turkey,” said Soner Cagaptay, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mr. Cagaptay also said that even though Mr. Erdogan had made gains in pushing his Islamist agenda, the military served as an effective restraint.

But for all his Islamist sympathies, Mr. Erdogan is at root a pragmatist. As a young firebrand he was jailed for his antisecular rhetoric but now, after working within Turkey’s democratic framework rather than outside it, he is recognized as perhaps the Middle East’s most influential figure.


By LANDON THOMAS Jr.