From the mall to the docks, positive signs of an economic turn are building.
PORTLAND, Oregon
AFTER THE WORST DOWNTURN since the Great Depression, signs of recovery - albeit tinged with ambiguity - are mounting in the United States, building hope for the rest of the world. Despite worries that consumers in the world’s largest economy might hunker down for years - spooked by debt, lost savings and unemployment - thriftiness has given way to the outlines of a new shopping spree: households are replacing cars, upgrading home furnishings and amassing gadgets.
The docks are humming again at this sprawling Pacific port, with clouds of golden dust billowing off the piles of grain spilling into the bellies of giant tankers.
“Things are looking up,” said Dan Broadie, a longshoreman. No longer passing time at the union hall while waiting for work, instead he is guiding a mechanized spout pouring 40,000 metric tons of wheat into the Arion SB, bound for the Philippines.
Shoppers are snapping up electronics and furniture, as fears of joblessness yield to exuberance over rising stock prices. Tractor trailers and railroad cars haul swelling quantities of goods through transportation corridors, generating paychecks for truckers and repair crews.
RICHARD PERRY/THE NEW YORK TIMES
Spending by U.S. consumers and rising exports to healthier economies overseas are raising hopes for a rebound. Retail sales increased by 9.1 percent in March at established stores.
LEAH NASH FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
A longshoreman in Portland, Oregon, Kevin Weldon, prepares to unload soda ash.
From Mall To Docks, An Uptick
On the factory floor, production is expanding, a point underscored by government data released on April 23 showing a hefty increase in March for orders of long-lasting manufactured items. In apartment towers and on cul-de-sacs, sales of new homes surged in March, climbing by 27 percent, amplifying hopes that a wrenching real estate disaster may finally be releasing its grip on the American economy.
Many economists estimate that consumer spending - which makes up some 70 percent of American economic activity - swelled by 4 percent during the first three months of the year, more than the double the pace once anticipated. Some have nudged upward their estimates for economic growth to more than 3 percent this year.
“Consumers are showing extraordinary resilience,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. “There’s a lot of pent-up demand out there that is now being unleashed. The whole supply chain system is now being revitalized.”
While few dispute signs of recovery across much of the economy, significant debate remains on how robust and sustained it will be. The lingering effects of the financial crisis have some economists envisioning a long stretch of sluggish growth.
But in recent months a stream of news indicates a vigorous recovery. Technology companies have increased sales. After a decade of painful decline, manufacturing is tentatively adding jobs. Retail sales increased by 9.1 percent in March at established stores compared with a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth.
Exports swelled in the first two months of the year by nearly 15 percent compared with a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department. Spending power has been enhanced by a monumental reduction in household debt, which has shrunk by about $600 billion since the fall of 2008, according to Equifax credit data analyzed by Economy.com. That amounts to about $6,300 a household.
At a Porsche dealership in Los Angeles, the sales manager, Victor Ghassemi, has seen sales rise by about 5 percent in recent weeks, a trend he attributes to rising stock portfolios. “People get tired of holding on to their money, or just sitting at home and not doing anything,” he said. “People love to shop. And you take that privilege away from somebody, it lasts about a year. Eventually, people want to come back. ”
By PETER S. GOODMAN
