The race for California’s 45th Congressional District between incumbent Michelle Steel and challenger Derek Tran has become one of the most suspenseful in Korean-American electoral history. Despite the November 5th election being over 12 days ago, the count remains razor-thin at 50%-50%, with Steel trailing Tran by just 36 votes as of November 17th, according to election officials from Los Angeles and Orange Counties.

Steel holds a 4,152-vote lead in traditionally Republican Orange County, with 138,320 votes to Tran’s 134,168. However, Tran dominates in Democratic-leaning Los Angeles County, outpacing Steel by 4,188 votes (18,813 to 14,625), leading to his slim overall advantage.

Key Factors and Remaining Votes
The race is far from decided, as significant numbers of uncounted ballots remain: 71,911 in Orange County and 79,400 in Los Angeles County. The distribution of these votes will likely determine the outcome, with Orange County favoring Steel and Los Angeles County favoring Tran.

Local analysts note that the slow pace of ballot counting, driven by a surge in mail-in voting, could delay a final result for weeks, with the certification deadline set for December 5th.

Impact on Broader Republican Strategy
This election is seen as a bellwether for the Republican Party’s reach in California, a traditionally Democratic stronghold. The race’s outcome may significantly influence GOP momentum heading into 2024.

In addition, California State Senate District 37 is also in limbo, with Republican Seokho Choi leading incumbent Josh Newman by 7,116 votes. Should Choi secure the seat, he would become the only Korean-American in the state legislature following the departure of Dave Min to Congress.

Election experts stress the importance of monitoring mail-in ballots, as they are a major reason for delayed outcomes in these tightly contested races.

<Hyungseok Han>