By Ryu Jin
Staff Reporter

South Korea on Monday played down the significance of Sunday’s missile test by North Korea, saying it was a common end-of-winter military drill, involving a short-range missile without nuclear capabilities, and unrelated to the dispute over the North’s nuclear ambition.

Song Min-soon, deputy foreign minister and chief South Korean delegate to the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear arms programs, said that no symptoms have been found to back up recent speculations that the North may test an atomic weapon soon.

``The missile that North Korea recently fired is a short-range missile and is far from the one that can carry a nuclear weapon,’’ he told the Seoul-based Yonhap news agency. ``This isn’t a case to be linked to the nuclear dispute.’’

In Japan and the United States, officials attached little significance to the test-firing either. Andrew Card, the White House chief of staff, publicly announced the test, saying it was ``not surprising.’’ A Japanese military official also noted that Tokyo believes the missile flew only an extremely short distance and would not pose an immediate threat to it.

Despite what seemed to be intended indifference, however, the missile test adds more concerns to the nuclear issue as it came at a time when the archrivals of the standoff _ North Korea and the U.S. _ are engaged in a fierce tug-of-war outside the bargaining table.

Last week, the 30-month-long confrontation between the main antagonists was decorated by another sharply worded denunciations of their top leaders. U.S. President George W. Bush belittled Kim Jong-il calling him a ``dangerous person’’ and a ``tyrant,’’ while the North reacted by calling Bush a ``Philistine’’ and a ``hooligan’’ with whom it could not negotiate.

Given its history of brinkmanship, experts say, North Korea may be using the missile test following the recent reactor shutdown to strengthen its bargaining position before returning to the negotiation table. But, others question whether the state has made up its mind to join the nuclear club rather than the denuclearization forum.

The six-party talks, launched in 2003, have been stalled since last June and North Korea and the U.S. are currently at loggerheads over how to resolve the standoff. Washington refuses to accept Pyongyang’s demands for bilateral talks, sticking to the multilateral format, which also involves China, Japan and Russia.

American officials have recently raised the possibility of bringing the nuclear issue to the U.N. Security Council. But the North Koreans threatened that any economic sanction imposed by the Security Council would be considered a ``declaration of war.’’

After a weeklong trip to Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo by Christopher Hill, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs and U.S. point man on the North’s nuclear issue, South Korea and the U.S. said ``more diplomatic efforts’’ are needed to get the talks restarted.

Using a metaphor of a swan on a lake, a government official in Seoul hinted at the fierce tug-of-war taking place behind the scenes before real talks on the table. ``Think of the lesson from a swan on the lake,’’ he told The Korea Times.

``We may see a swan floating on the water so elegantly, seemingly without much effort. But, look beneath the surface! There you’ll find two webbed feet paddling away with such intensity so as not to sink,’’ he said. ``A lot of effort, though invisible, are being made to get things moving forward.’’

According to the diplomatic sources, another round of diplomatic efforts will be staged in the next few weeks to reinvigorate the nuclear talks by June, the point in time described by Song _ the chief Seoul negotiator _ as a ``psychological’’ barrier.

Following last week’s tour to the three East Asian nations, Hill is set to fly to Moscow this week to discuss ways to resume the talks with his Russian counterpart. Foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan will also hold bilateral and trilateral talks in Kyoto this week.

In addition, summit diplomacies among relevant nations also raise hope. On May 9, President Roh Moo-hyun will meet President Hu Jintao of China, the country with he greatest leverage on North Korea. Roh and Bush will also likely hold a summit, possibly in June.

As prospects for the nuclear issue alternate between optimism and pessimism, a doomsday analysis was said yesterday on the consequences that a U.S. nuclear strike on a North Korean city might result in, citing a simulation test by a U.S. non-governmental organization.

John Large, an independent nuclear consultant who has advised governments around the world, said a U.S. nuclear strike on the North’s nuclear complex in Yongbyon could create up to 550,000 victims, including South Koreans and Japanese.

``The fallout would be considerable and spread _ depending on weather _ over South Korea and parts of Japan,’’ the British expert said, adding the estimated number of casualties would range from 430,000 to 550,000.

Gen. Leon J. LaPorte, commander of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), said in a meeting with South Korean lawmakers yesterday morning that his country has the ``capability’’ to launch a preemptive attack against the North, but does not have any ``intention’’ to do so.

jinryu@koreatimes.co.kr