By Ryu Jin
Staff Reporter


Condoleezza Rice’s replacement of Secretary of State Colin Powell heralds a tougher U.S. stance toward North Korea, but it does not mean the situation surrounding the Korean peninsula will simply deteriorate, according to officials in Seoul Tuesday.




Since President George W. Bush’s re-election, South Korean officials have worried the second-term Bush would replace those Cabinet members considered relatively moderate and take a harder stance on North Korean issues.
Powell, regarded as a dove in a White House full of hawks, had served as a ``balance’’ to Bush’s unilateralism, backed by other members such as Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, although many thought Powell was not a player but a figurehead.

Rice, 50, who is said to often pray for her president, shares a love of football and frequents the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas, in weekends, is understood to share President Bush’s view of the world.

Her reported appointment as secretary of state would be a first for a black woman, and would mean an unquestioned Bush loyalist would be in charge of a key department the White House had come to view with suspicion.

The conflicts within the White House increased in the run-up to the Iraq war, according to Bob Woodward’s book on this period. Bush made the decision to go to war together with Rice and Rumsfeld, informing Powell only after the fact.

Prof. Koh Yu-hwan of Dongguk University in Seoul predicted Powell’s leave and Rice’s rise could further strengthen U.S. foreign policy, raising the possibility its North Korea policy could favor pressure rather than dialogue.

But officials in Seoul showed a somewhat different attitude about the prospects, saying there would be little difficulty in them having close consultations on pending issues with Rice, an official whom they have already gotten along with for the past two years.

``Powell’s resignation came as no surprise to us, nor did the appointment of Rice as his successor,’’ an official said on condition of anonymity. ``What is important is that we can still communicate well with officials in the second-term Bush administration.’’

The senior government official, deeply involved in the nation’s security affairs, said he does not expect Rice, although largely regarded as a practical conservative, will simply take a harder line on North Korea.

Such an opinion is based on the fact that Rice _ despite her tough image _ is not classified as a ``neo-con’’ and has pursued a middle-of-the-road policy in managing foreign affairs and security-related issues, according to other government officials.

But, some analysts still doubt Rice’s intention and capability to mediate between the hawks and doves, describing her as one of the weakest national security advisers in recent U.S. history in terms of handling inter-agency conflict.

``Seoul-Washington cooperation can get more difficult with Rice’s appointment,’’ a Seoul expert on U.S. affairs cautiously expected, asking not to be named.

``Policies on such critical issues as the nuclear issues of North Korea and Iran, have been mired in disagreement throughout her tenure,’’ he told The Korea Times. ``And she never seemed to drive the process to a resolution.’’

jinryu@koreatimes.co.kr